Denmark’s general election Wednesday is likely to produce a change of government, according to POLITICO’s poll of polls.
The highest-polling party, the Social Democrats, currently averages 27 percent support, leading the second-placed Liberals by an average of 8 points.
Social Democrat leader Mette Frederiksen has said she aims to lead a left-wing minority administration but no party will be able to form a government without at least some support from others.
Across dozens polls in the course of 2019, the country’s progressive “red bloc” of parties has increased its lead over the more conservative “blue bloc,” which currently governs the country under Liberal Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.
Red-bloc parties, which include the Social Democrats, Radical Liberals, Red-Green Alliance and Socialist People’s Party, have a 12-point lead (55 to 43) over the blue bloc. The trailing alliance is headed by the Liberal party and includes the Euroskeptic Danish People’s Party and Christian Democrats.
While the red bloc’s overall lead looks unassailable, the Social Democrats slipped in a poll conducted on May 26, the day of the European Parliament election, scoring 23 percent, giving them just a three-point lead over the Liberals.
The Social Democrats won only 21 percent of the vote in the European Parliament election, well below their national opinion poll rating, and were beaten into second place by the Liberals by two points.
In Denmark’s 2015 election, the blue bloc beat the red bloc by 52 to 47 percent.