After the European Parliament took the unprecedented step of triggering a disciplinary procedure against Hungary, three key players will determine what happens next.
They are: EU governments, who must decide how to respond to Parliament’s move; Europe’s main center-right grouping, which faces calls to expel Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party from its ranks; and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government.
Here’s a guide to what lies ahead for each of them.
1. What will the EU do?
Possibly not a lot, and almost certainly not much any time soon.
Under the so-called Article 7 procedure triggered by Parliament on Wednesday, the baton passes to the Council of the European Union, made up of the governments of EU member countries.
All EU governments (except Hungary) would need to vote in favor of a “serious and persistent breach” in order for the process to reach the next stage.
First to examine the issue will be the committee of member countries’ ambassadors to the EU, known as Coreper. “They will decide how to frame the debate,” an EU official said.
Then Hungary will end up on the agenda of the General Affairs Council, made up of the member countries’ European affairs ministers. According to Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, the Council “may determine that there is a clear risk of a serious breach” of the EU’s fundamental values, after hearing from the accused country. But the text does not say that the Council must reach a determination, nor does it set any deadlines.
To conclude that there is a clear risk of a serious breach of EU values would require a majority of at least four-fifths of the Council’s members.
As a guide to how slowly things can move, take the case of Poland. The European Commission triggered Article 7 proceedings against Warsaw last December, primarily over concerns about the rule of law, and the Council has yet to reach a decision on whether a serious breach of EU values has taken place.
Orbán arrives at the European Parliament | Frederick Florin/AFP via Getty Images
If the Council does determine a “serious breach,” the Parliament, the Council or the Commission could take initiate a further step — deciding whether there is a “serious and persistent” breach of EU values. Reaching that conclusion could lead to the suspension of Hungary’s right to vote on Council decisions. But there seems little appetite among EU governments to go that far.
“Article 7 is meant to re-establish the conditions for a dialogue,” said a senior official from a Western European country. “The goal is not sanctions, the goal is to bring them back to practices that are tolerable.”
The leaders of all EU governments (except Hungary) would need to vote in favor of a “serious and persistent breach” in order for the process to reach the next stage. That’s a very high bar. Hungary has already said it would block any such step against Poland and it seems very likely that Warsaw would return the favor. Other EU governments that have come under fire for their democratic and human rights standards would also be very wary of setting a precedent that could be dangerous for them.
The final stage of the Article 7 process, a vote to suspend a country’s voting rights, requires only a qualified majority (55 percent of EU countries, comprising at least 65 percent of the EU’s population — all minus the accused country, of course). But to get to this point, the Council would have to have agreed unanimously at the previous stage.
2. What about the European People’s Party (EPP)?
Centrist members of the pan-European center-right group, the largest faction in the Parliament, want to see Fidesz kicked out of the EPP. But despite Parliament’s vote on Tuesday, EPP group officials say the leadership shows no sign of wanting to take this step.
EPP President Joseph Daul and Manfred Weber, the group’s leader in the Parliament, have pitched their alliance as a broad church. They also have a clear incentive to keep Fidesz in their ranks, to increase the EPP’s chances of remaining the biggest party in the Parliament after next May’s European election. Weber is running for the European Commission presidency and will need to get a parliamentary majority behind him to achieve that goal.
The EPP was split over whether to vote for Wednesday’s motion in Parliament. Generally speaking, many of its MEPs in Northern Europe supported the measure while those in the South and East were more likely to oppose it. Weber himself voted for the motion but other members of his Christian Social Union party did not.
An EPP official said national party leaders will likely discuss the issue when they meet in Salzburg next week ahead of an informal European Council summit there. It would be up to national parties to submit a request to expel Fidesz. If seven member parties from five countries make such a proposal, the EPP’s political assembly will examine the issue and deliver its own judgment.
For his part, Orbán has proclaimed he wants to stay in the EPP, although he has also made clear he could form a group with right-wing populists if he wants to.
Fidesz MEP György Schöpflin told POLITICO that there are now three possible scenarios in dealing with the EPP. The first is that “nothing changes” between Fidesz and the EPP. The second is that Fidesz is expelled, which Schöpflin said would be “very bad for the EPP.” And the third, he argued, is that a section of the EPP — presumably closer to the political center — would break away and form an alliance with French President Emmanuel Macron and his La République En Marche party.
“I don’t know which one will happen … but whichever one does, Orbán wins,” Schöpflin declared, pointing to like-minded parties Fidesz could work with such as Poland’s Law and Justice and the Danish People’s Party.
3. And Orbán?
The Hungarian government’s strategy at the moment appears to be to wait out the storm. Unlike in previous confrontations with Brussels, Orbán has shown no sign of backing down.
Ahead of this week’s vote, EPP leaders including Weber suggested that Orbán could compromise on legislation widely seen as curbing the freedom of NGOs and the Central European University in Budapest. But Orbán responded with a defiant speech, giving no quarter and declaring that Hungary is being punished for defending conservative Christian values.
Fidesz may also pursue a legal challenge against the Article 7 vote, arguing that Parliament erred in not counting abstentions when it determined whether the necessary two-thirds majority had been reached. József Szájer, a Fidesz leader in the European Parliament, told his EPP colleagues in an email that his government will consider the vote “null and void,” and is “studying the necessary legal steps.” But Parliament followed the advice of its own legal service in not counting abstentions.
Some observers believe Orbán will use his defeat in Strasbourg to fire up supporters back home.
Legal arguments aside, Fidesz officials have suggested they are content to play the long game — and wait for a new European Parliament and European Commission next year that they believe would be more friendly to them.
Some of Orbán’s critics believe that, as he becomes more sidelined from Europe’s mainstream, he could go further with repression at home.
The vote constitutes “a red light to the systemic violation of our shared European values,” said Stefánia Kapronczay, head of the Hungarian Civil Liberties Union, adding that nevertheless a “further crackdown might follow in the short run.”
Some observers believe Orbán will use his defeat in Strasbourg to fire up supporters back home.
“Mostly he’ll unleash nationalist hysteria,” said Gáspár M. Tamás, a philosopher and former communist-era dissident who is critical of the Orbán government.
Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting.
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