BRUSSELS — Donald Trump is turning his back on free trade and, with it, the €1.6 trillion transatlantic trade relationship. That’s motivating the European Union to do trade deals with just about everyone else.
The United States accounts for 13 percent of world trade. The EU, the world’s largest single market spanning 27 nations and 450 million people, accounts for around 16 percent — and is looking to extend its lead.
“Countries are lining up to work with us,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has told POLITICO.
Since her second Commission was confirmed in December, von der Leyen has wrapped up talks on a long-awaited accord with the Latin American Mercosur bloc; called to strike a free-trade agreement with India this year; and launched or relaunched talks with the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and others.
Here’s a rundown of the deals that Brussels wants to get done:
Mercosur
Why does it matter? Within a week of her second Commission being sworn in last December, von der Leyen flew to Montevideo, Uruguay, to shake hands with the leaders of the Mercosur countries — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — on a deal that would create a market of more than 700 million consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.
What’s holding it back? European farmers, especially in France, still furiously oppose the deal, which has been in the works for a quarter century, fearing competition from cheap South American imports. France’s political leaders have taken a stand against the Mercosur deal, and there is opposition in Poland, Belgium and Ireland as well.
The farmers refuse to be placated, even though the deal sets low import quotas on items such as beef, poultry and sugar. Then there’s the issue of deforestation, specifically in the case of Brazil, where some worry that companies may try to circumvent the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
Chances of it happening anytime soon? Trump’s all-out trade war has turned the tide on the Mercosur debate, leading some previously skeptical countries — like Austria — to shift toward the pro-deal camp. Even France appears to be wavering, with trade minister Laurent Saint-Martin telling POLITICO that Trump’s trade war is “a wake-up call on trade agreements.” Still, he maintains, the Mercosur agreement is unacceptable in its current form.
A window of opportunity would open after the May 18 presidential election in Poland — which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. A vote in the Council would take place in either September or October, on Denmark’s watch, with the final signature expected by year’s end.
Deal-o-meter rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️★
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India
Why does it matter? Von der Leyen flew to India in February with her new College of Commissioners to pitch an FTA that she called “the largest deal of this kind anywhere in the world.” A trade accord would forge a common market of nearly 2 billion people, tying India closer to its biggest trading partner, the EU.
With India on track to become the world’s third-largest economy by the end of the decade, it’s no surprise that von der Leyen has put getting the deal over the line this year at the center of her diversification agenda.
What’s holding it back? If the past teaches us anything, it’s that the EU must be clinical in its pursuit of an FTA with India. In 2013, a deal collapsed after six years and 15 rounds of talks, amid European frustration about market access in sectors ranging from cars to liquor. Fast forward to 2021, and the long-stalled talks were ignited once again into a three-part trade deal in the hope of solving issues such as India’s high duties on imported cars.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s main man in the talks, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, has earned a reputation as the world’s toughest trade negotiator. Another sensitive issue for New Delhi is the EU’s planned carbon border tax, with Goyal threatening a retaliatory levy that, he says, would sound “the death knell of manufacturing in Europe.”
Chances of it happening anytime soon? Both von der Leyen and Modi have made it clear they want to get the deal done this year — a bold ambition if experience teaches us anything. Still, with Trump also pressing India to open up its market, New Delhi is seeking less coercive and more consensual trading relationships. Modi will also want to play Washington and Brussels off against each other to get the best deal. Goyal is due in Brussels on May 1-2 for his second visit of 2025, ahead of another round of formal talks from May 12-16 in New Delhi.
Deal-o-meter rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️★★
Australia
Why does it matter? Negotiations between Australia and the EU were launched in 2018, with 15 rounds held thus far. Reaching a deal would increase the bloc’s GDP by an estimated €4 billion. The EU ranks as Australia’s third-largest trading partner in goods, ahead of the U.S., and second in services. However, Brussels remains at a disadvantage when it comes to trading with Down Under, as competitors like Japan and the United Kingdom enjoy preferential access through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Securing a deal would not only open up market access for European exports of cars and machinery, but also help the EU reduce its dependency on China for critical raw materials — Australia being rich in deposits of minerals such as lithium and cobalt, as well as rare earth metals.
What’s holding it back? Beef and sheep meat. Talks collapsed just before the finish line in October 2023, when Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell walked away complaining of a lack of access to the EU market. The European Commission complained at the time that the Australian side had re-tabled agricultural demands that, it said, “did not reflect recent negotiations and the progress made between senior officials.”
Australian farmers still want greater access to the EU market, but the Commission’s trade negotiators have little room to maneuver with Europe’s own farming lobby hostile to freer trade. Another sticking point is geographical indications (GIs), under which Australian producers would lose naming rights on products like Prosecco, Feta and Parmigiano Reggiano.
Chances of it happening anytime soon? Australia’s May 3 general election — which is likely to return a government led by incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese — could fire the starting gun on a new negotiating push. Farrell, the man who killed the EU deal in 2023, now says “the world has changed” following Trump’s tariff offensive.
Even Australian farmers are saying that if the EU wants to live up to its role as a leader in trade, it needs to walk the walk and get the deal across the line. Farrell spoke earlier this month with Maroš Šefčovič, the EU’s chief trade negotiator, and says the two have agreed to meet up soon after the election.
Deal-o-meter rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️★
Indonesia
Why does it matter? Indonesia is the largest economy in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) — a regional trade community — and the world’s fourth-most-populous nation. Its trading relationship with the EU pales by comparison. The EU is its fifth-largest trading partner, but Indonesia, despite its size, doesn’t even rank in the EU’s top 30. That spells untapped potential.
What’s holding it back? Talks over the past decade have been bumpy, to say the least, with disputes repeatedly ending up before the World Trade Organization. Jakarta had hoped to wrap talks before its new government took power in October, but that proved too ambitious.
The bloc wants Indonesia’s nickel ore for its steel and automotive industries, but Indonesia has banned exports — which the EU has successfully challenged at the WTO. Jakarta also seeks more latitude under the EUDR — which seeks to prevent forest land being cleared for cultivation and would impact its palm oil industry. The EU won’t budge.
Chances of it happening anytime soon? After an inconclusive 19th round last July, no 20th round has yet been penciled in. The sheer number of rounds held shows how drawn-out the process has become, with a landing zone for a deal eluding negotiators for almost a decade now.
Deal-o-meter rating: ⭐️⭐️★★★
Southeast Asia (Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand)
Why does it matter? The EU is also ramping up efforts to strengthen ties with other ASEAN nations — resuming stalled trade talks with Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. All count the EU among their top trading partners. The push comes as the bloc looks to catch up with rivals like China and the U.S. in the region.
With a market of over 660 million consumers, the 10-nation ASEAN is the EU’s third-largest trading partner outside Europe after the U.S. and China. Malaysia is also a member of the CPTPP, which could strengthen the EU’s drive to pursue membership, given that the U.K. is already a member of the trade alliance.
What’s holding it back? Disagreements over Malaysia’s palm oil industry, the second-largest in the world, led the two sides to put the deal on hold in 2013 — as with Indonesia, the EUDR became a sticking point along with concerns over sustainable practices.
In the case of the Philippines, concerns over previous Prime Minister Rodrigo Duterte’s human rights violations and hostility toward the West put an end to talks — which resumed in 2023 after Duterte stepped down. Similarly, a military coup in Thailand in 2014 led the EU to put discussions on hold.
Chances of it happening anytime soon? Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim visited Brussels in January to push for a deal. Brussels expects a first round of negotiations to take place either before summer or later in 2025. Malaysia’s trade minister, Tengku Zafrul, expects talks to conclude next year.
FTA talks with both the Philippines and Thailand are progressing, with the next rounds set for June — Brussels will host talks with the Philippines, while an EU delegation will head to Bangkok for the Thai negotiations. Several chapters in each negotiation have already been provisionally agreed.
Deal-o-meter rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️★★
Koen Verhelst contributed reporting.