Home Society Far-right MEPs set to outnumber EPP in next Parliament
Far-right MEPs set to outnumber EPP in next Parliament

Far-right MEPs set to outnumber EPP in next Parliament

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Far-right MEPs set to outnumber EPP in next Parliament

BRUSSELS — MEPs from far-right parties look set to outnumber those from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party after next week’s election, polls now suggest.

That doesn’t mean the EPP will be beaten into second place, because the fragmented parties on the extreme right will almost certainly be unable to unite. It does, however, reflect Europe’s shift to the right and will bring a new political complexion to the next Parliament.

According to a Poll of Polls projection of the incoming legislature, the EPP would win 170 seats if the election were held now.

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) — the two main right-wing groupings — are on course for a total of 144 seats.

There are also other parties in the mix, such as Alternative for Germany, which is projected to win 16 seats, and Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, which is in line for 10. France’s Reconquest is polling at five seats, Poland’s Konfederacja at six and Bulgaria’s pro-Kremlin Revival party at three.

That takes the projection of far-right MEPs to 184.

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

How those far-right MEPs will coalesce after the election is still up in the air.

France’s Marine Le Pen (National Rally) has been courting Italy PM Giorgia Meloni to form a far-right super-group in the Parliament and become one of Europe’s leading political families. The National Rally is projected to become the top national party in the ID group, while Meloni’s Brothers of Italy are on track to become the largest national party in the ECR.

Meloni has said she’s open to cooperating with any parties on the right, but she has also received an offer to team up with von der Leyen’s EPP. Only last week, Alternative for Germany was thrown out of ID to great fanfare.

Pro-Ukraine ECR members have balked at the idea of Orbán’s Fidesz joining their group. Others, like Belgium’s New Flemish Alliance, have already questioned the Hungarian party’s ECR membership.

The ID and ECR groups are even now far from a monolithic bloc, with members frequently casting votes against the majority — underlining that groups whose member parties are defined by national interests and sovereignty can’t be expected to vote together on every issue.

Instead, National Rally President Jordan Bardella has said he hopes to achieve a “blocking minority” on specific files.

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